Richard III - my 20 x great-grandparent

[Michael]

I hadn't thought of Henry VIII; when looking for an example of someone who lived several centuries ago whose bloodline died out within a generation or two of his own death, the first one who came to my mind was Shakespeare.

Originally Posted by Shona

A member of a discussion forum of which I am a member, estimated that over the course of 500 years, intermarriages reduces the total number of descendants by a factor of 20 or so. The results? Rather than 1,000,000, a more believable 50,000.

While you're welcome to quote the estimate if you wish, I'd be wary of placing too much emphasis on it - although it's almost certainly closer to the mark than their own estimate, "something which I read a few years ago and of which I can only remember a few vague details" is not the firmest of grounds on which to make it.

[Olde Crone]

Michael

I think the point is though, that statistical evidence can prove anything - or nothing. It is a guess. Unless someone actually counts up the number of descendants of R3, any figure is just a GUESS.

On my Gawsworth line I worked out that where I should have, um, 5000 ancestors, I only have about 1000 individuals because of the intermarrying and generational "slippage" that went on. This must be the same for many people, whether highborn or lowly, due to a lack of choice of partners, the lack being one of geography or of social standing.

OC

[Glen TK]

In a few hundred years there may well be someone who does in fact fit the general figures that have been guessed, I'll be long gone by then of course but I will be one of those to be counted within the total. In fact knowing just some of the antics surrounding the legend that was my birth father then the figures are very likely to be on the low side.

[Michael]

Originally Posted by Olde Crone

I think the point is though, that statistical evidence can prove anything - or nothing. It is a guess. Unless someone actually counts up the number of descendants of R3, any figure is just a GUESS.

True, but not all guesses are equal. An 'educated' guess - that is, one which takes into account the factors which are likely to have the biggest effect on the answer - is likely to be much closer to the true figure than one which disregards one or more important factors.

[Glen TK]

I've just done a quick chart on my tree from my 5xgrt grandfather, lots if his descendants never married and many of those who did died young and childless

Counting him as first generation the following 6 are as follows

8 Children 19 Grandchildren 22 Great grandchildren, the next three generations are 53, 82 and 68 descendants.

I make that 252 over 6 generations, some lines only come forward to 1920 or so, the majority to the 1960's and others to the 1990's but the absolute maximum wouldn't see a three fold increase.

[anne fraser]

I have a lot of generational slippage. My grandmother was born in 1882 and her grandfather in 1799. A fact of which he was apparently very proud. I have an ancestor who married for the third time aged about 70 and thanks to the family search site habit of estimating a generation as 25 years there are family trees that invent a missing generation to account for the years. I was born in 1952 and my children have yet to provide me with any grandchildren. Personally I think a generation should be closer to 30 years as a lot of men and women were still having children into their forties. I have comparitively few births to fathers under 20.

[Shona]

Exactly, Anne. One of my great-grandmothers was the youngest of her father's 17 children. When she was born, her eldest sibling was 44 and a grandfather.

[Olde Crone]

Shona

I have one of those as well, drove me nearly round the bend. I thought I was dealing with three men because the children were born over a period of 49 (?) years to three women, two of whom had the same name!

I only managed to solve the problem when I studied the monumental inscriptions and made a time line. It was one man married three times, wives one and three having the same very common name. Eldest child was a grandmother several times over by the time her youngest half sibling was born.

OC

[Shona]

Good example, OC. Another puzzler I dealt with was this great-grandmother's husband. She was his second wife - and a good 20 years younger than him. I thought I had all the offspring from both of great-grandfather's marriages, until I read his obit in the local newspaper. There were too many sons. Eventually discovered he had a son with the farmer's daughter.

[anne fraser]

It is estimated that about a third of the population died in the great plague in 1665. This is a genetic bottle neck and it is likely that a lot of Richard 111 relations perished as well.